Wahrheit und Irrtum in der Wirtschaftspolitik

»Why Economists Sometimes Go Wrong«: Millions of daily decisions made by free individuals form the foundation of the national economy. Macroeconomic models attempt to aggregate this diversity in order to provide guidance for economic policy. In doing so, however, they inevitably simplify the far more complex reality. Added to this are differences in perception and methodological problems: variables are often vaguely defined, data only imperfectly reflect the theoretically desired quantities, and economic relationships can be modeled in different ways. Above all, it is important to note that behaviors, expectations, and causal relationships can change with every business and growth cycle. What explains the past does not necessarily apply to the future.